This week’s discussion was not as easy I originally thought it would be. What’s more, it seems I’ve been suffering from analysis paralysis in terms of writing a remotely interesting blog post—thus the explanation for the delay.

Week 2’s topic primarily centered on the notion of the never-ending evolution of media—namely, its vast movement from what consumers have been historically dependent upon—ya know, “traditional” media such as newspapers, television, and radio—to new and emerging technologies of the modern communications world: the blogs; the podcasts; the Tweets; the breaking news alerts sent directly to our in-boxes—the list goes on. Collectively, the world has transformed from being at the mercy of the media’s publishing/airing schedules to virtually (no pun intended) controlling it/them—that is, we decide 1) what WE want to consume; 2) when WE want to consume it; and 3) how we prefer consumption.

Media expert Paul Levinson shares his insight on new vs. traditional media

As such, the class was challenged specifically with putting its futuristic hats on to predict which traditional media format(s) we felt would most likely fall victim (and ultimately go extinct) to the rising popularity of the ever-flowing wave of electronic media. Not surprisingly, the response was particularly overwhelming as most students argued in favor of the expected demise of the bleeding newspaper (including myself)—citing such contributing negative factors as: skyrocketing production costs, skeleton-crew newsrooms, environmental/sustainability concerns, plummeting circulations numbers, and the worsening decline in advertising revenue. These industry “cancers” have decimated the newspaper industry with mass layoffs, trimmed distribution schedules, and even bankruptcies, in some cases. If you really want a glimpse of the sluggish pulse of the newspaper industry, just bookmark Newspaperdeathwatch, a Web site dedicated to “chronicling the decline of newspapers and the rebirth of journalism.” You might notice, one of the polls posted on their home page right now is quite alarming. The question asks: “Would You Advise a College Student to Pursue a Journalism Career Today?”

More than 60 percent of voters selected “No” as their answer.

But the newspaper industry is not the only casualty of the rapid popularity of what is now commonly known as User Generated Content (UGC), as seen in the millions of discussion boards, blogs, wikis, social networking sites, news sites, trip planners, memoirs, mobile photos/videos, customer review site, photosharing sites, podcasts, and on, and on, and on. Students shared a similar sentiment for Direct Mail (DM), citing its primary imminent threat to the environment, due to the insurmountable waste it creates and the low response rates that result (generally speaking) during a typical DM campaign. One student boldly claimed, “I’d prefer an email with a marketing ploy or coupon any day, over the hundreds of useless environmentally harmful mailers I receive every day.” She added further insight from a report published by the Environmental Defense Fund that states , The life cycle of paper production, from the raw materials to its disposal, greatly affects forest soils, water and air quality, plant and animal habitats, energy and water consumption and waste generation.” And some companies, like Clif Bar, recognize this departure from paper-based media approaches like direct mail, and are using more sustainable ones to reach their target audiences. If you want to do your part to control the amount of useless direct mail  you receive, click here to learn more.

Lastly, most marketers television advertising has become less effective in the past two years, but many are interested in exploring new ad formats and forms of video commercials, according to the Association of National Advertisers (ANA) and Forrester Research. Among the major findings of the fourth biennial TV & Technology study:

• 62% of marketers say TV advertising has become less effective in the past two years.
• 87% of respondents say they intend to spend more on web advertising this year.
• Close to half of the advertisers surveyed have already started to experiment with new ad types to work with DVRs and VOD programs.
• 87% of advertisers say branded entertainment will play a stronger role in TV advertising in the coming year.
• Advertisers are eager to try new ad formats, including ads in online TV shows (65%), ads embedded in VOD (55%), interactive television ads (43%), and ads within the set top box menu (32%).
• Over 50% of marketers report that when half of all TV households use DVRs, they will cut spending on TV advertising by 12%.
• 72% of marketers are very interested in having individual commercial ratings rather than average commercial ratings.

I think Bob Liodice, president and CEO of the ANA, puts it best, “As marketers embrace the richness of new advertising avenues outside of the traditional TV format, the TV industry is working to address marketers’ issues related to ratings and the changing TV landscape. He adds, “Marketers, in collaboration with the TV industry, will continue to find the most effective and innovative ways to reach their customers through the TV medium, utilizing the emerging technologies available to them.”

So. TV advertising may not be dead per say, but clearly its traditional model is losing its effectiveness. The release of DVR-like products from Apple, TiVo, Motorola, and Cisco, have altered the whole television advertising landscape. No longer are consumers forced to suffer through invasive ads during their favorite shows. Consumers now have the power to fast-forward through an advertiser’s message, causing its message to have a good chance of falling on deaf ears/blind eyes.

One student proclaimed that turning our backs on traditional media tomorrow may be just dangerous as turning a blind eye to the importance of digital media today. Therefore, he regarded the future of media as a blended one—that is a world that isn’t defeated by new and emerging media, but one that uses the old with the new—all in an effort to best meet consumer demand and preference.

One last thing, the 2008 State of the News Media Report, written by the Project for Excellence in Journalism, says that news is shifting from being a product —today’s newspaper, Web site or newscast—to becoming a service— how can you help me, even empower me? As such, the study predicts five major trends gleaned from last year’s research: 

1. A news organization and a news Web site are no longer final destinations.
2. The prospects for user-created content, once thought possibly central to the next era of journalism, for now appear more limited, even among “citizen” sites and blogs.
3. Increasingly, the newsroom is perceived as the more innovative and experimental part of the news industry.
4. The agenda of the American news media continues to narrow, not broaden.
5. Madison Avenue, rather than pushing change, appears to be having trouble keeping up with it.

These are surely interesting times we’re living in, but what is your take? Where do you see the future of media going? Is there promise? What will the landscape look like 10, 20, 50 years from now? How will we communicate? From your perspective, where does the media compass point?

-Jamie